Don Paul: Comfortable conditions remain before the weather really warms up | Forecasts

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Gather while you can, because in about eight days it will be too hot around here.

How can I make such a subjective statement? What do I mean by “too hot?” For starters, I’m going to let the hazard office at the Climate Prediction Center, support me on this.

More details later, but let’s get to the short-term forecast first. Showers are in this forecast, it’s true. If you have a parched garden, lawn or farm field, you already know that northern Erie and Niagara counties missed Sunday night’s downpours. This is Buffalo’s National Weather Service precipitation summary map for the recent event.

Even areas that have been sprayed will lack topsoil moisture as we head into the excessive heat period. From Tuesday, soil moisture showed a deficit anomaly despite all this rain from the southern part. (In general, the Southern Tier has received more rain in recent weeks than the Niagara Frontier.)

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Since April 30, soil moisture decreased in western New York, although some of this may be explained by normal heating increasing the rate of evaporation.

Some limited moisture will reach our region by Wednesday evening, both in the form of increased humidity and a few scattered showers, ahead of a weak cold front.

However, when you go into detail in high resolution models, it is obvious that the scattered showers will be quite sparse and somewhat sparse in quantity, after a seasonally warm and partly sunny afternoon. Later Wednesday evening there could be some rumbles of thunder.

A few still scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible on Thursday morning, and an isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the afternoon under a partly sunny sky. The higher humidity will drop later Thursday, and there will be a helpful southwesterly breeze off Lake Erie at 74 degrees, down one degree over the past two days. Thursday’s high will range from the upper 70s near the lake to the low 80s further inland.

A second cold front will cross our region early Friday, ushering in a cooler, less humid air mass. All showers with the front will end early in the day. The afternoon will be partly sunny with a below average high in the mid 70s, along with a brisk west-southwesterly breeze. As for the estimate of total precipitation with these periods of sporadic showers, if you see legend you will see it will not bring much.

This will be especially important in light of the dry pattern that will follow and the heat that will arrive later next week.

Once the weekend sets in, we have a very reliable forecast of dry weather, with a cool Saturday in the mid to high 70s, and seasonal warmth returning on Sunday, when the highs hit the low to mid 70s. 80s. Humidity will increase slightly but remain moderate on Sunday.

On Monday, a southwesterly flow will push the temperature up to at least the mid-80s, with dew points bringing slightly elevated humidity. Our next best chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday, with the proximity of a outpost to our south.

It will be muggy, but cloud cover and the chance of spotty showers are expected to maintain highs in the 80s, perhaps even into next Wednesday. The first indications indicate coverage and amounts this will not be helpful for soil moisture, which will dry out further as the heat dome pushes east.

It looks like the “real” heat will continue until the end of next week. In the extended range, the upper air model ensemble shows the trend of anomalous heat reaching the Great Lakes, northeast and parts of Canada by next Thursday-Friday. The core of the heat dome will move into the Midwest, but the most exceptionally abnormal climatology pattern relative to normal will be where you will see the darker coloring. There is good agreement on this in all three major groups – American, European and Canadian.

It would be difficult to extrapolate accurate surface temperatures from these higher level pressure models. If this pattern holds true at this amplitude, I would expect many daytime highs into the 90s, with uncomfortably warm nights. The latter typically causes the greatest physiological stress in people living in homes without air conditioning, especially on upper floors.

In the grand scheme of things, our likely excessive heat will still be much less extreme than what has happened in many other places. Even in the northeast, Newark Airport’s NWS observatory reached an unprecedented 100 degrees for five consecutive days earlier last week, and La Guardia, on the waterfront in Queens, exceeded 96 those same days. To the south and southwest, Dallas has seen 31 days of over 100 degrees and Houston is having – so far – its hottest summer on record.

What is concerning is the potential duration of this very hot-to-hot pattern, and the consequences for people living in sweltering neighborhoods, as well as outdoor workers. Even the following week, when the core of the abnormal heat back a little to the west, the heat is still holding in our region.

What I am describing is also obvious to forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center across the eight to 14 day outlookwhich also projects drier than normal conditions.

Incidentally, the cooler, wetter anomalies in the southwest are due to the annual monsoon flow of Pacific moisture, which will temporarily alleviate the severity of drought conditions in Arizona.

There is always greater uncertainty in a 30-day outlook as you look further back in time. Keeping this in mind, the current CPC August outlook suggests that our chances of having a long, hot, dry summer are greater than usual.

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